Predicting Heart Failure Death in the ER

Ten pieces of information often gathered in the ER may be able to predict the risk of death for people with heart failure within seven days of presentation.

The new tool is called the Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade (EHMRG).  To develop the tool lead researcher Douglas Lee, MD, PhD, of the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences in Toronto, and colleagues examined three years’ worth of data from 12,591 heart failure patients in 86 hospitals in Ontario, Canada, from 2004 to 2007.

Within seven days of presentation 2% of the patients had died.  Researchers looked for common links—everything from medications, to lab values and transportation.  After adjustments were made, the 10 factors significantly associated with a greater risk of death in the first week were:

• Older age
• Transportation by emergency medical services
• Lower triage systolic blood pressure
• Higher triage heart rate
• Reduced oxygen saturation
• Higher creatinine
• Potassium level of 4.6 mmol/L or higher
• Elevated serum troponin
• Active cancer
• Use of metolazone at home

The researchers noted limitations of the study, especially the lack of information about left ventricular ejection fractions and brain natriuretic peptide.  The authors also noted that, “Symptomatic improvement, ability of the patient to seek follow-up care, and social circumstances should also be considered, along with quantification of acute prognosis.”  They indicated that the tool is not for use in patients who have chronic, symptomatically stable heart failure.

Lee is applying for a U.S. patent.

For more details or to read the entire study see the June 5 issue of the Annals of Internal Medicine, Prediction of Heart Failure Mortality in Emergent Care. 

This article was originally published in Pathways Physician & Health Professional Bulletin - Issue 25.  To download this issue in PDF format, or past issues, visit our newsletter archives online at www.pathwayshealth.org/publications.

Literacy Affects Health

Higher Mortality

Low health literacy is significantly associated with higher mortality in patients with heart failure. This is the conclusion drawn by researchers who designed a retrospective study of patients at Kaiser Permanente in Colorado.

They examined cases of heart failure from 2001 to 2008, surveying patients by mail.  The patients were also followed for a median of 1.2 years.  Health literacy was assessed using well-established screening questions and categorized as either “adequate” or “low”.  Then researchers looked at hospitalization and mortality for all causes.

The survey response rate was 72% (1547 of 2156); 17.5% of responders had low health literacy.  Low health literacy was associated with:

• Increased age
• Lower socioeconomic status
• Less likelihood of having at least a high school education
• Higher rates of co-morbidities 

In multivariable Cox regression, low health literacy was independently associated with higher mortality (unadjusted rate, 17.6% vs 6.3%; adjusted hazard ratio, 1.97 [95% confidence interval, 1.3-2.97]; P = .001), but not hospitalization (unadjusted rate, 30.5% vs 23.2%; adjusted hazard ratio, 1.05 [95% confidence interval, 0.8-1.37]; P = .73).

This study was published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA.  2011; 305(16):1695-701 (ISSN: 1538-3598).